*Indicates a student co-author.
Berri, David, Richard C. K. Burdekin, and Ran Tao. “Determinants of attendance in the early days of US professional baseball: panel estimation, 1892–1940.” Applied Economics, vol. 56, issue 55, 2024, pp. 7369-7386.
Abstract: If fan demand is driven by balanced competition and/or the spectacle of the game, then all teams can do well. However, if winning is what really counts, life becomes very difficult for the teams at the bottom of the standings each year. In contrast to the dominant role played by television and media rights today, the calculation was more clear-cut during US baseball’s early days when simply getting fans in the stands was what paid the bills. Although our panel data analysis shows that other factors like home runs hit and competitive balance were also significant over the 1892–1940 period, it appears that fans then, like today, mostly just wanted to see their favourite team win.
Burdekin, Richard C. K., John Horan*, and Ran Tao. “Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions and the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic.” International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, vol. 13, no. 1, 2024.
Abstract: Although the onset of the pandemic pressured monetary and fiscal policy across the globe, deficit finance was aided by the large, established debt markets in countries like the United States. The expansionary efforts in emerging markets like Latin America put greater strains on their more limited capacity. Our study analyzes data from seven Latin American countries, three European countries, three Asian countries, and the United States. We utilize panel vector autoregressive (VAR) models to explore the dynamic interactions and feedback mechanisms among the policy variables, while accounting for unobserved country-specific effects. Our results demonstrate strong and significant interactions between monetary and fiscal policy around the time of the pandemic, with the primary causal effects running from fiscal to monetary policy. Additionally, our results yield evidence of countercyclical policy reactions to inflation for both monetary and fiscal policy over the pandemic period.
Fernholz, Ricardo T. and Rory Kramer. “Racing to Zipf's law: Race and metropolitan population size 1910–2020.” Journal of Regional Science, vol. 64, issue 3, June 2024, pp. 649-670.
Abstract: Scholarship demonstrates that urban systems follow a power law population distribution if the population has full labor mobility. Theoretically, subpopulations should also follow a power law population distribution if that subpopulation also has full labor mobility. Examining city population distributions for White and Black Americans across US metropolitan areas from 1910 to 2020 shows that the White distribution mostly conforms to both Zipf's and Gibrat's laws throughout this period. In contrast, the Black population does not follow either law until the second half of the 20th century, a result that is consistent with theories of restricted mobility out of the South for Black Americans during the Jim Crow era.
Firoozi, Daniel. “Economic Distress and Electoral Consequences: Evidence from Appalachia.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 106, issue 3, May 2024, pp. 778-793.
Abstract: Information about inequality can change political attitudes in lab and survey experiments. I use data from the Appalachian Regional Commission and a regression discontinuity design to test whether salient information about local poverty can impact voter behavior in a field setting. I find that when the poorest decile of counties is labeled “economically distressed,” the Democratic share of the Presidential and House popular vote rises in subsequent elections. I present suggestive evidence linking this result to local news coverage, rather than spending or other outcomes.
External Grant: Xu, Di, Principal Investigator, et al. “From Training to Employment: A Multi-Inquiry Study of Noncredit Workforce Training Programs.” The Regents of the University of California, on behalf of its Irvine campus, 2024-2028, $1.6m ($120,000 subaward for CMC).
Abstract: This grant supports the University of California at Irvine in partnering with the Virginia Community College System to assess impacts of noncredit workforce training programs on learners’ labor market outcomes and to examine effectiveness of an innovative state-wide policy designed to incentivize student enrollment in and completion of noncredit programs in high-demand fields. There is a roughly $120,000 subaward for CMC that will fund an audit study investigating the returns to sub-associate's degree workforce credentials and certificates. The project will entail hiring several undergraduate research assistants.
Flory, Jeffrey A., Andreas Leibbrandt, Christina Rott, and Olga Stoddard. “Leader Signals and ‘Growth Mindset’: A Natural Field Experiment in Attracting Minorities to High-Profile Positions.” Management Science, vol. 70, issue 8, August 2024, pp. 4953-5635.
Abstract: We conduct a large-scale natural field experiment with a Fortune 500 company to test several light-touch approaches to attract minorities to high-profile positions. A total of 5,000 prospective applicants were randomized into treatments that vary a small portion of recruiting materials. We find that self-selection at two early-career stages exhibits a substantial race gap. We then show that this gap can be strongly influenced by several treatments, with some closing the race gap and increasing application rates of minorities by 40% and others being particularly effective for minority women. These effects are not accompanied by any declines in application rates of majority group job seekers. In addition, we do not find that endorsing the “business case” for diversity reduces the race gap or raises application rates by minorities or women. The heterogeneities we find by gender, race, and career stage shed light on the underlying drivers of self-selection barriers among minorities.
Agranov, Marina, Benjamin Gillen, and Dotan Persitz. “A Comment on ‘Testing Models of Social Learning on Networks: Evidence From Two Experiments.’” Econometrica, vol. 92, issue 5, September 2024, pp. 1-6.
Abstract: In the context of social networks, imitation is the act of following a decision made by one of the agent's neighbors. Proposition 2 in Chandrasekhar, Larreguy, and Xandri (2020) characterizes when imitation is optimal in a discrete-time setup where all agents are myopic Bayesian and this is common knowledge. In this note, we provide a correction to this result, where the condition for imitation to be optimal is stronger than in the original result.
Jacob, Sharin, Benjamin Gillen, Santiago Ojeda-Ramirez, Clare Baek, Carlos Barrera, Diana Franklin, and Mark Warschauer. “Intersectional Factors that Influence K-2 Students' Computer Science Learning.” RESPECT 2024: Proceedings of the 2024 on RESPECT Annual Conference, May 2024, pp. 21-29.
Abstract: Understanding issues of intersectionality in education is vital for creating equitable learning environments. Intersectionality emphasizes the complexity of students' identities, including race, gender, and socioeconomic status, and how they interact to characterize their diverse group membership. Examining data intersectionality underscores students' heterogeneous needs, circumstances, and outcomes, advancing researchers' and policymakers' understanding of the types of interventions that ameliorate disparities for marginalized students. This study examines the intersectional factors influencing K-2 students' coding skills. We employ a hierarchical linear model on a validated pre-and-post coding assessment to examine a year-long Coding as Another Language curriculum for Latine, multilingual, and low-socioeconomic students. Findings indicated initial performance gaps for students with historically marginalized and intersecting backgrounds. After receiving the curriculum, these students demonstrated significant improvement, closing the coding skills gap with their more privileged peers. These findings underscore the importance of investigating and mitigating disparities in coding education for students with intersecting identities.
Helland, Eric, and Minjae Yun. “The Impact of Informal Discovery Conferences: Evidence from the Los Angeles Superior Courts.” RAND Corporation Research Brief, January 1, 2024.
Abstract: In the realm of litigation, the discovery process, a formal information exchange supervised by the courts, constitutes a fundamental aspect of legal proceedings. It serves as a mechanism for parties to reveal trial evidence to the opposing side while allowing for adequate preparation of counter-arguments. However, this process is fraught with challenges. Both sides have incentives to withhold valuable information and request data of limited relevance, leading to a complicated balance between information exchange and its associated costs. When disputes arise, parties may file motions to compel, urging the court to force disclosure. The widespread use of such motions has led to concerns within the judicial system; judges have expressed frustration over excessive reliance on these legal maneuvers. To address this issue, courts have explored various case management techniques, such as informal discovery conferences (IDCs), aiming to streamline the discovery process and reduce associated costs. Although such case management techniques as IDCs are widely used in both the Los Angeles (LA) Courts and other jurisdictions across the country, questions persist regarding their effectiveness. The challenge for researchers lies in determining whether these conferences genuinely mitigate discovery-related conflicts. Prior research, including several studies conducted by the RAND Institute for Civil Justice (ICJ), have explored related policies, often concluding that the impact of such case management techniques as IDCs depends heavily on individual judges' management styles as much as a specific intervention. This brief describes a study in which researchers from the ICJ and the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)-RAND Center for Law and Public Policy attempted to isolate the impact of IDCs from such confounders as other unobserved case management techniques used by the judges who also use IDCs. Specifically, the researchers used a quasi-experimental design based on judges' propensity to use IDCs. By analyzing data from the Los Angeles Superior Court (LASC), where judges are randomly assigned to cases, the researchers were able to isolate the impact of IDCs on discovery motions from the case management styles of the judges who are most likely to use them.
Ricca, Lucy, and Eric Helland. “Conference on Access to Justice in California: Challenges and Policy Innovations.” RAND Corporation, October 4, 2024.
Abstract: Millions of Americans experience civil legal problems daily, and low-income Americans are particularly prone to experience such problems. At a day-long conference titled Access to Justice in California: Challenges and Policy Innovations held in Santa Monica, California, approximately 75 national and California leaders discussed approaches for reforming legal services regulation as a way to reduce the access to justice gap in California. The conference was structured to walk attendees through the different, but related, avenues of legal services regulation reform that have emerged across the United States. These conference proceedings summarize key themes from five panel discussions and provide select and specific examples to deepen the understanding of the issues discussed. Throughout the panel discussions, there was broad consensus among participants that the access to justice gap in the United States is real, wide, and deep. Rethinking legal services regulation is one approach in addressing this gap, alongside increased funding for direct legal services and the simplification, standardization, and modernization of court process and procedure. Part of the discussions focused on the multiple roles nonlawyers have played, and do play, in the provision of legal services. There was the beginning of a consensus that the community justice worker model may hold potential in California, although more conversations with existing stakeholders will have to occur before a proposal could move forward. Participants also considered how First Amendment challenges to the ban on the unauthorized practice of law could potentially affect nonlawyer practice.
Helland, Eric, Anupam B. Jena, Dan P. Ly, and Seth A. Seabury. “Self-Insuring against Liability Risk: Evidence from Physicians’ Home Values in States with Unlimited Homestead Exemptions.” The Journal of Legal Studies, vol. 53, no. 1, January 2024, pp. 67-114.
Abstract: We study whether individuals self-insure against uninsured liability risk by exploiting variations in state laws that allow individuals to protect some portion of the value of their homes against creditors. We test whether physicians take advantage of these laws to invest more in their homes to protect assets from malpractice claims exceeding liability policy limits. In states with unlimited homestead exceptions—laws that protect home equity from recovery by creditors—physicians invest 13 percent more in home value than in the absence of an exemption. Effects are larger where liability risk is greater; no effect occurs for other professionals of similar family income, family size, demographics, and city of residence. Our evidence suggests that individuals manipulate their financial assets to self-insure against liability risk when insurance markets are incomplete.
Helland, Eric. “Data-Informed Decision Making: The Positive Impacts of Holding Informal Discovery Conferences.” Superior Court of California, County of Los Angeles: Biennial Report 2023-2024, 2024, pp. 31-32.
Abstract: This article explores the benefits of Informal Discovery Conferences (IDCs) as a mechanism for improving case management and reducing litigation costs in civil courts. Drawing on empirical data from the Los Angeles Superior Court (LASC), the study highlights how IDCs contribute to expedited case resolution by fostering cooperation between parties, limiting unnecessary motions, and encouraging early exchange of information. By analyzing data from a large sample of civil cases, Helland demonstrates that cases in which IDCs were held saw a significant reduction in discovery disputes and motions to compel, translating to shorter case durations and lower legal expenses for litigants. The article underscores the role of data-driven policy decisions in shaping judicial practices, showing that courts can enhance efficiency and fairness by adopting procedural innovations informed by rigorous analysis. Helland's contribution aligns with broader efforts to close the access-to-justice gap by promoting cost-effective legal solutions. Ultimately, the findings suggest that institutionalizing IDCs across civil divisions could lead to more equitable outcomes and alleviate case backlogs. The article concludes with recommendations for expanding the use of IDCs and integrating data collection into routine judicial operations to continuously refine court processes.
Keil, Manfred, and Arlo Jay. “The Inland Empire was once the loser in economic recovery, not anymore.” The San Bernardino Sun, January 25, 2024.
Johnson, Annika, and Manfred Keil. “Logistics drives Southern California’s divided recovery.” The San Bernardino Sun, March 8, 2024.
Kolesnikov, Ivan, and Keil, Manfred. “Where is employment heading in the Inland Empire?” The San Bernardino Sun, March 23, 2024.
Keil, Manfred, and Robert Kleinhenz. “There’s more to the economy than unemployment rates.” The San Bernardino Sun, April 4, 2024.
Keil, Manfred, and Sattley, Ethan. “California has highest state unemployment rate, almost equal to Inland Empire’s 5.4%.” The San Bernardino Sun, June 7, 2024.
Keil, Manfred and Suchen Hou. “Did the ‘great resignation’ and ‘great reshuffling’ affect the Inland Empire?” The San Bernardino Sun, June 27, 2024.
Keil, Manfred, and Mark Schniepp. “The Inland Empire is a puzzle when it comes to recent economic growth.” The San Bernardino Sun, July 12, 2024.
Cheng, Yu-Chi, and Manfred Keil. “Eyeing the economic differences across Southern California.” The San Bernardino Sun, September 6, 2024.
Keil, Manfred. “Interest rate cuts will help housing more than commercial real estate.” The San Bernardino Sun, September 18, 2024.
Keil, Manfred. “Can ONT become a Southern California alternative for LAX?” The San Bernardino Sun, October 25, 2024.
Keil, Manfred. “How Trump’s tariffs could affect the U.S. trade deficit and employment.” The San Bernardino Sun, December 5, 2024.
Keil, Manfred. “How Trump’s tariffs could affect the U.S. trade deficit and employment.” The San Bernardino Sun, December 5, 2024.
Keil, Manfred, and Ivan Kolesnikov. “How the Inland Empire stacks up to other Southern California regions in real GDP growth.” The San Bernardino Sun, December 20, 2024.
Gao, Pengjie, Allen Hu, Peter Kelly, Cameron Peng, and Ning Zhu. “Asset Complexity and the Return Gap.” Review of Finance, vol. 28, issue 2, March 2024, pp. 511–550.
Abstract: Existing research finds that investors’ returns vary with their wealth and level of sophistication. We bring a new perspective from the supply side by showing that return heterogeneity can be magnified as assets offered by the market become more complex. Using detailed account-level data, we examine the trading of B funds—complex, structured products in the Chinese market. During a 3-year market cycle, the return gap between the naive and sophisticated is an order-of-magnitude greater when trading B funds than when trading simple, non-structured funds. In an event study, we confirm that this disparity is driven by differences in investors’ understanding of product complexity.
Fišar, Miloš, Ben Greiner, Christoph Huber, Elena Katok, Ali I. Ozkes, and the Management Science Reproducibility Collaboration. “Reproducibility in Management Science.” Management Science, vol. 70, issue 3, March 2024, pp. 1343-2022.
Abstract: With the help of more than 700 reviewers, we assess the reproducibility of nearly 500 articles published in the journal Management Science before and after the introduction of a new Data and Code Disclosure policy in 2019. When considering only articles for which data accessibility and hardware and software requirements were not an obstacle for reviewers, the results of more than 95% of articles under the new disclosure policy could be fully or largely computationally reproduced. However, for 29% of articles, at least part of the data set was not accessible to the reviewer. Considering all articles in our sample reduces the share of reproduced articles to 68%. These figures represent a significant increase compared with the period before the introduction of the disclosure policy, where only 12% of articles voluntarily provided replication materials, of which 55% could be (largely) reproduced. Substantial heterogeneity in reproducibility rates across different fields is mainly driven by differences in data set accessibility. Other reasons for unsuccessful reproduction attempts include missing code, unresolvable code errors, weak or missing documentation, and software and hardware requirements and code complexity. Our findings highlight the importance of journal code and data disclosure policies and suggest potential avenues for enhancing their effectiveness.
Madison, Florian. “A microfounded approach to currency substitution and government policy.” Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 219, July 2024, 105847.
Abstract: This paper develops a search-theoretic, two-country, dual-currency model featuring endogenous currency substitution with costly authentication of foreign currency. Benevolent governments, unable to commit to future policies, determine fiscal and monetary policy weighing distortion-smoothing and time-consistency. Decisions of the fiscal authority are accommodated by the monetary authority, where public expenditures, public debt, labor taxation, and inflation are determined using the notion of a Markov-perfect equilibrium. Inflation differentials arise endogenously from cross-country heterogeneities in the citizens' valuation of public goods, rendering international differences in fiscal imbalances the root cause for currency substitution. A steady-state analysis characterizes long-run allocations and identifies the domestic and foreign governments' best responses to changes in local payment patterns. Historical data supports the theoretical findings and provides empirical evidence for the positive relationship between currency-substitution ratios, inflation, and public debt. An extension studying de jure dollarization shows that time-consistency concerns disappear once currency substitution is imposed exogenously, reducing the government's objective to distortion-smoothing exclusively.
Madison, Florian. “Asymmetric information in frictional markets for liquidity: Collateralized credit vs asset sale.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 159, February 2024, 104808.
Abstract: This paper studies (non-)equivalence of collateralized credit and asset sales in over-the-counter markets subject to commitment and information frictions. Embedded in a search-theoretic general equilibrium model, a signaling game refined by the undefeated equilibrium endogenizes the choice between pooling and separating offers and provides novel insights under what conditions either payment strategy dominates the other. The results show that non-equivalence depends on economic fundamentals, commitment, and information frictions. Despite adverse selection, first-best consumption can occur for collateralized credit, but not for asset sales, with belief-driven endogenous haircuts and over-collateralization characterizing the terms of trade. An extension incorporating co-existing information-sensitive assets and fiat money sheds new light on portfolio management and diversification under private information and ties optimal payment strategies to monetary policy.
Robinson, Sarah, Heather Royer, and David Silver. “Geographic Variation in Cesarean Sections in the United States: Trends, Correlates, and Other Interesting Facts.” Journal of Labor Economics, vol. 42, no. S1, April 2024.
Abstract: Analyzing data spanning three decades covering the near universe of births, we study county-level differences in C-section rates among first-time mothers of singleton births. Our research reveals persistent geographic variation in C-section rates for both low- and high-risk groups. Counties with elevated C-section rates consistently perform more C-sections across mothers at all levels of appropriateness for the procedure. These elevated rates of C-section in counties with high C-section rates are associated with reduced maternal and infant morbidity. We also find that C-section decisions are less responsive to underlying risks for Black mothers relative to white mothers, suggesting potential welfare-reducing disparities.
Shelton, Cameron A. “Mobilization and Backlash: Asymmetric Updating in Response to Campaign Ads.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, August 2024.
Abstract: Applying a media market boundary approach to individual survey data, I show that political advertising on television increases the probability that viewers who identify with a party will espouse its positions, prefer its candidates, and turn out to vote. This is true no matter which party sponsored the ad, suggesting that an ad consolidates and motivates the sponsor's partisans while simultaneously engendering a countervailing consolidation and mobilization among supporters of the other party. My results are consistent with agents who judge a source's quality by their priors and highlight the importance of targeting supporters.
External Grant: Vossmeyer, Angela, Co-Principal Investigator. NSF Major Research Instrumentation Program, Award Number 2408259, 2024, $918,485.
Abstract: Claremont McKenna College (CMC) and Harvey Mudd College (HMC) are undergraduate liberal arts colleges located in Claremont, CA. Both colleges place a strong emphasis on undergraduate research and students gaining hands-on training with leading-edge research techniques. The 10 major users of the proposed HPC cluster are faculty from both CMC and HMC who span three broad areas of disciplinary expertise (natural, mathematical, and social sciences; see Table 1) and represent a diversity of both personal backgrounds and career stages. All have a robust record of mentoring undergraduate students and publishing peer-reviewed articles involving computational research, and several are currently, or have been recently, supported by NSF grants. Despite the obvious need for HPC resources, our institutions’ current computing resources do not go beyond standalone workstations and servers. We require a locally hosted HPC cluster to advance computational research at our colleges and train the next generation of undergraduate students in the natural, mathematical, and social sciences.