* Indicates student co-author
Appel, Hilary and Boyang Liu*. “The Limits of the Russia-China Partnership after the Ukraine Invasion.” PONARS Eurasia, October 24, 2022.
Abstract: Despite many years of expanding cooperation and engagement between Beijing and Moscow, China’s record on trade, foreign direct investment, weapons sales, and military exercises after the invasion of Ukraine suggests that China has not backed the Russian war effort in material terms. Although China has offered strong rhetorical support for Russia, it is trying, like many countries, to straddle both East and West without sacrificing core interests.
Appel, Hilary and Jennifer Taw. “Will Russia’s Anti-NATO Gambit Succeed?” Project Syndicate, January 27, 2022.
Abstract: Putin is playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship vis-à-vis Ukraine. He has succeeded in calling into question the strength of NATO’s commitment to the country, highlighted its internal divisions, and forced the world to pay greater attention to Russian power. And he may yet manage to wring concessions from the US and NATO. But Putin also risks putting himself in the position of having to launch a materially and politically costly invasion of Ukraine.
Ascher, William L. “Response to Fabián A. Borges’s Review of The Psychology of Poverty Alleviation: Challenges in Developing Countries.” Perspectives on Politics, vol. 20, no. 4, 2022, 1424-1424.
Ascher, William L. Review of Human Capital versus Basic Income, by Fabián A. Borges. Perspectives on Politics, vol. 20, no. 4, 2022, pp. 1420-1421.
Blitz, Mark. “Conclusion: What Is Popular Sovereignty?” People Power: Popular Sovereignty from Machiavelli to Modernity, edited by Robert G. Ingram and Christopher Barker. Manchester University Press, 2022, pp. 254–67.
Bou Nassif, Hicham. “Coup in Tunisia: Why the Military Turned Its Back on Democracy.” Journal of Democracy, vol. 33, no. 1, 2022, pp. 27-39.
Abstract: The ongoing crisis in Tunisia has shaken the basis of its young democracy. President Kais Saied's 25 July 2021 power grab has upended the political order in Tunis and opened the door to a creeping autocratic restoration. This is tragic not only for Tunisia but also for the Arab world more broadly––Tunisia's was the only democratic transformation that followed the 2011 uprisings and the country gave hope to democrats in the region. Long hailed for their political neutrality and professionalism, the Tunisian Armed Forces have played an ambiguous role in the crisis and stand to benefit from it. This article argues that the generals' change of heart may be due to political and resource demands: They seek a strong leader to help consolidate political and resource gains made in the past decade. Saied and the armed forces have strong incentives to stick together and entrench their power, making a quick democratic restoration in Tunisia unlikely.
Bou Nassif, Hicham. “Military Politics and Democratic Transition: Combining Rationality, Culture, and Structure.” The Oxford Handbook of Civil-Military Relations, edited by William R. Thompson and Hicham Bou Nassif. Oxford University Press, 2022.
Bou Nassif, Hicham. “Why the Military Abandoned Democracy.” Journal of Democracy, vol. 33, no. 1, 2022, pp. 27-39.
Abstract: The ongoing crisis in Tunisia has shaken the basis of its young democracy. President Kais Saied's 25 July 2021 power grab has upended the political order in Tunis and opened the door to a creeping autocratic restoration. This is tragic not only for Tunisia but also for the Arab world more broadly––Tunisia's was the only democratic transformation that followed the 2011 uprisings and the country gave hope to democrats in the region. Long hailed for their political neutrality and professionalism, the Tunisian Armed Forces have played an ambiguous role in the crisis and stand to benefit from it. This article argues that the generals' change of heart may be due to political and resource demands: They seek a strong leader to help consolidate political and resource gains made in the past decade. Saied and the armed forces have strong incentives to stick together and entrench their power, making a quick democratic restoration in Tunisia unlikely.
Bou Nassif, Hicham and William R. Thompson, editors. The Oxford Handbook of Civil-Military Relations. Oxford University Press, 2022.
Abstract: People tend to think of civil-military relationships in binary terms. Either the military takes its orders from its usually civilian government leaders without any resistance or the military calls the governmental shots by taking over the government when it is displeased with civilian behavior. Reality, of course, is much different. There is an incredible variety of civil-military relationships around the globe, ranging between the continuum end points of full obedience to governmental authority and military coups d'etat. It is ordinarily difficult to tap into that variety easily because edited collections of country studies are constrained by space limitations to covering a handful of representative or interesting political systems. That constraint often leads to focusing on a few well known cases - normally, ones involving intermittent military rule. Other examinations limit themselves to more in-depth analysis of single cases. The Oxford Encyclopedia of the Military in Politics is the first of its kind in the sense that it contains 92 chapters encompassing roughly a hundred cases examining the evolution of civil-military relationships over time. Approximately half of the cases encompass states in which the military more or less accepts political subordination. In the other half, they either have refused to be subordinated or become politically insubordinate intermittently. Authors were recruited from around the world to address these issues from a variety of perspectives. In addition, another 32 chapters examine topical questions such as what factors encourage military coups, what are the consequences of military rule, how do the military vote, or whether military expenditures boost economic growth.
Rasler, Karen, William R. Thompson, and Hicham Bou Nassif. “The Extent of Military Involvement in Nonviolent, Civilian Revolts and Their Aftermath.” Handbook of Revolutions in the 21st Century, edited by Jack A. Goldstone, Leonid Grinin, and Andrey Korotayev. Springer, 2022, pp. 739-779.
Abstract: This chapter analyzes the role of the military’s position in the outcomes of civilian uprisings and revolutions. Civilian protest campaigns (or revolutions) that appear to drive autocrats from office are dramatic affairs. However, in most cases it is not civilian protestors alone who can be credited for the regime change outcome. The military are significant veto players. They can work to keep autocrats in office, they can support the civilian uprisings, or they can participate in some negotiated compromise that may be worked out. Whatever the case, the authors contend that the more significant and overt the military role in these affairs, the less likely it is that the post-revolutionary outcome is democratic in nature. How and to what extent they play a role is assessed through an investigation of 36 nonviolent, civilian revolts that brought about successful regime change since 1945. In each case, we measure, albeit crudely, the breadth of civilian participation and the nature of the military involvement. These indicators are then compared with democratization levels five and ten years after the nonviolent, civilian revolt. We find that protest campaigns can certainly bring down regimes, but in most cases, only if the military permits it. When the military is least involved in toppling the regime, the new subsequent regime is likely to be more democratic. When the military is highly involved, the nature of the new regime is predictably less democratic.
Branch, Jordan and Timothy Turnbull. “Territory and International Economy.” Oxford Handbook of International Political Economy, edited by Jon Pevehouse and Leonard Seabrooke. Oxford University Press, August 2021. [Published in 2021 but not celebrated last year]
Abstract: The concept of territory has rarely been directly interrogated in IPE literature.
Territory involves more than geography or space; instead it invokes a set of ideas and practices of political authority and control. While there are research programs in IPE that deal with spatial scale--including the study of global cities, regionalism, the size of states, offshoring, and special economic zones--there are important ways that IPE can draw on work from other fields that explicitly focuses on territory. Importantly, the literature on territory lays bare some of the territorial assumptions of common IPE models which, if further explored, have the potential to lead to better model specification and the opening up of new and fertile areas of research.
Busch, Andrew. “Domestic Policy Legacies of the Trump Presidency.” The Trump Effect, edited by Steven E. Schier and Todd E. Eberly. Rowman & Littlefield, 2022, pp. 125-146.
Abstract: Most of Donald Trump's domestic policies were not a significant departure from traditional Republican policies on taxes, regulation, energy and environment, judicial appointments, or social issues. He varied most on trade, where he adopted a more protectionist-tinged (though not outright protectionist) approach; immigration, where he emulated congressional Republican patterns rather than more common Republican presidential approaches; and criminal sentencing, where he embraced de-incaeration in the FIRST STEP Act. He seems to have won his case within the party on immigration, but trade remains up in the air, and the recent spike in crime rates may push Republicans back to their traditional 'law and order' stance.
Busch, Andrew E. “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Donald Trump and the Republicans.” The Elephant in the Room: Donald Trump and the Future of the Republican Party, edited by Andrew E. Busch and William G. Mayer. Rowman and Littlefield, 2022, pp. 131-150.
Abstract: This chapter seeks to identify which elements of the Trump presidency Republicans should emulate, which they should avoid, and which they should repudiate. In the first category include tax policy, energy independence, and a more robust electoral appeal to racial minorities; in the second, complete lack orf spending discipline and administrative acumen; and in the third, Trump's uncontrolled personal narcissism and demagoguery.
Busch, Andrew. “Mail Voting and Election Legitimacy.” RealClearPolitics, March 15, 2022.
Abstract: Some criticisms of mail voting are reasonable and should be considered.
Busch, Andrew. “Parties See Election Law Through Different Lenses.” RealClearPolitics, May 2, 2022.
Abstract: Battles over voting laws are bitter not only because each party perceives an interest in the outcome, but because the parties have fundamentally different ways of thinking about voting.
Busch, Andrew. “Pence Has Earned a Look But Faces Uphill Climb.” RealClearPolitics, March 2, 2022.
Abstract: Examines the presidential prospects of former vice president Mike Pence, which are not great but may be greater than some assume.
Busch, Andrew. “Stalemate.” The American Mind, May 25, 2022.
Abstract: The movie '2000 Mules' raises interesting questions, but is far from proving what it claims.
Busch, Andrew. “When Will the COVID Emergency Be Over?” RealClearPolitics, February 11, 2022.
Abstract: There are several ways to define the 'emergency,' so determining when it is over is not easy.
Busch, Andrew. “Why We Are In Ukraine.” Law & Liberty, September 23, 2022.
Abstract: Criticism of U.S. aid to Ukraine on the right are misguided. The U.S. has both moral and strategic reasons to help Ukraine defend its independence.
Busch, Andrew. “Will the Battle to Replace Breyer Be Bitter, or Just Close?” RealClearPolitics, January 28, 2022.
Abstract: History says the battle to replace Breyer will be close, but likely not bitter.
Busch, Andrew. 'Will a New Cold War Bring Back an Old Political Calculus?,' RealClearPolitics, April 1, 2022.
Abstract: Discusses the question whether the new state of tensions with Russia will return foreign policy experience and stable temperament to the front range of considerations for the next president.
Busch, Andrew. “Wisconsin, the Rule of Law & the Return to Normalcy.” RealClearPolitics, August 14, 2022.
Abstract: Comments on a recent ruling of the Wisconsin state Supreme Court upholding the state's election law.
Busch, Andrew and William Mayed, editors. The Elephant in the Room: Donald Trump and the Future of the Republican Party. Rowman & Littlefield, 2022.
Abstract: This book includes nine essays from center-right political scientists and commentators who address the question of what role Donald Trump will or should have in the Republican Party moving forward. The essays present a range of views from sympathetic to Trump to hostile.
Fortner, Michael. “‘The Message’: Order Maintenance and Its Discontents,” Vital City, October 25, 2022.
Fortner, Michael Javen. “Racial Capitalism and City Politics: Toward a Theoretical Synthesis.” Urban Affairs Review, vol. 59, no. 2, 2022, pp. 630-653.
Fortner, Michael. Review of Street Fighting Girl, by Andrea Elliott. Literary Review, June 2022.
Fortner, Michael. “The U.S. Has a Violence Problem, and It’s Up to Democrats to Solve It.” New York Times, February 28, 2022.
Fortner, Michael. Review of The War on Drugs, by David Farber. Register of the Kentucky Historical Society, 119, no. 4, 2022, pp. 446-449.
External Grant: Fortner, Michael. “Crack and the Congressional War on Drugs” Dirksen Center Congressional Research Grant, 2022, $4,963.
Abstract: A Dirksen Center Congressional Research Grant is requested to support domestic travel to visit the archival collections of several former congressional leaders for Crack: A Tragedy in Three Acts, a book project on the origins and consequences of the “crack epidemic” of the late 1980s. This project traces the emergence of “crack” as a political issue, studies the interests and motivations of congressional leaders who drafted the Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986 in response to “crack,” and examines how the organization of Congress—its structure and procedures—shaped the specific elements of this infamous bill.
Jones, Terril. “Shinzo Abe’s Ties to the U.S. Ran Deep.” Medium, July 16, 2022.
Jones, Terril. “What the Tiananmen Protest Can Tell Us About China’s Zero-Covid Unrest.” Politico, Dec. 6, 2022.
Koch, Lisa Langdon. Review of All Options on the Table, by Rachel Elizabeth Whitlark. Perspectives on Politics, vol. 20, no. 3, 2022, pg. 1148-1149.
Abstract: Invited review of a recent monograph on conflict and the spread of nuclear weapons.
Koch, Lisa Langdon. “Holding All the Cards: Nuclear Suppliers and Nuclear Reversal.” Journal of Global Security Studies, vol. 7, issue 1, 2022, ogab034.
Abstract: Do international nonproliferation institutions affect the decisions states make about their nuclear weapons programs? Most studies of nuclear reversal analyze outcomes, rather than decisions. However, states do not uniformly pursue nuclear weaponization but proceed along different paths lined by decisions affecting state resources, research and development, and materials and production. These decisions, which may delay or undermine a program, are critically important to understanding nuclear proliferation processes and outcomes. Using a new data set of non-termination nuclear reversal decisions across three key aspects of program development, I capture more of the process of nuclear reversal. I investigate whether two major nonproliferation institutions, the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), influence state decisions about whether to continue investing in ongoing programs. I argue that NSG members have strengthened cooperation across three distinct policy eras and find that the NGS's market controls have generated material constraints that raise the likelihood that states will make nuclear reversal decisions. I do not find evidence that the NPT contributes to reversal decisions within the context of ongoing programs. These findings have implications for the impact of international institutions on state behavior and for counterproliferation policy effectiveness.
External Grant: Koch, Lisa and Matthew Wells. The Stanton Foundation Nuclear Security Grant Program, 2022-2023, $82,600.
Miller, Kenneth P. and J. Andrew Sinclair, “CMC-Rose Institute/YouGov Poll: Battleground Pennsylvania: The 2022 Midterm Election,” Rose Institute of State and Local Government, November 2, 2022.
Miller, Kenneth P. and J. Andrew Sinclair, “CMC-Rose Institute/YouGov Poll: Red vs. Blue States: Competing Visions for 2022 and 2024.” Rose Institute of State and Local Government, November 4, 2022.
Miller, Kenneth P. “Il Sogno Californiano.” Limes: Revista Italiana de Geopolitica, September 12, 2022.
Shields, Jon and Stephanie Muravchik. “Liz Cheney and the Twilight of the Old Republican Elite.” New York Times, August 16 2022.
Behnegar, Nasser, Devin Stauffer, Rafael Major, and Christopher Nadon. “From Laslett to Waldmann: The Case for Reconsidering Strauss on Locke.” The Review of Politics, vol. 84, no. 4, 2022, pp. 570-591.
Abstract: The denial of Locke's debt to Hobbes has long been characteristic of many scholars of Locke influenced by the Cambridge School. Peter Laslett was the first to argue for this view, and he did so in conscious opposition to Leo Strauss and his interpretation of Locke. The recent discovery by Felix Waldmann of a memoir that confirms Locke's deep interest in Hobbes as well as his prudent concealment of that interest has undermined Laslett's case against Strauss. Waldmann's discovery, moreover, comes in the wake of other historical work, by Jeffrey Collins and others, that has provided further grounds for abandoning the Cambridge view of Locke. These developments have yet to lead to a serious reengagement with Strauss's interpretation of Locke, but they should, because his controversial claim about Locke's debt to Hobbes has been vindicated.
Nadon, Christopher and Christopher Lynch. “Machiavelli’s Turn to Xenophon.” Machiavelli Then and Now: History, Politics, Literature, edited by Sukanta Chaudhuri and Prasanta Chakravarty. Cambridge University Press, 2022, pp. 73-95.
Abstract: Machiavelli's treatment of Cyrus, king and founder of the Persian Empire, followed in the tradition of scholars who later came to be known as the Italian Renaissance humanists, who had laboured from the beginning of the fifteenth century to restore the direct knowledge of classical antiquity. In doing so, they made Xenophon part of the common intellectual heritage of sixteenth-century Italians. Machiavelli enrolled in this movement when he listed Cyrus among the chief examples of those who became princes by their own virtue and not by fortune, when he compared him to no less a figure than Moses, and when he exhorted his readers to consult Xenophon's account of Cyrus's life, the only book so honoured in The Prince. Machiavelli was unable, however, simply to follow in the path of others. A sign of the difference between them is that whereas the humanists also took great interest in Plato and Aristotle, Machiavelli harboured doubts, much as Hobbes would later, as to the wisdom of reinstating these figures as intellectual authorities. Indeed, for Machiavelli, Xenophon's particular understanding of politics and philosophy and his manner of writing on these subjects are important elements of the remedy or antidote to the ills he thought produced, in part, by other philosophers from the classical tradition.
External Grant: Nichols, Jr., James H. Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation Research Fellowships, 2022, $25,000
Abstract: Fellowships awarded by Prof. Nichols, on the basis of academic merit, to graduate students in political philosophy.
Pears, Emily and Emily Sydnor. “The Correlates and Characteristics of American State Identity.” Publius, vol. 52, no. 2, 2022, pp. 173-200.
Abstract: The Federalist Papers highlight the role that citizens’ state identities will play in American federalism, yet some scholars argue that contemporary Americans have shed their state attachments. Drawing on data from a nationally representative survey, we demonstrate that individuals still hold dual national and state identities, and that the likelihood that one will feel attached to their state depends on a variety of individual characteristics such as education, identification with a marginalized or minority community within the state, and one’s ideological “fit” with the partisan majority in their state, leading to significant variance from one citizen to the next. Additionally, we find that this state identity is correlated with political attitudes, particularly trust in and assessment of state elected officials. Individuals who hold stronger state identities are also more likely to trust their state government. These findings have implications for our understanding of the dynamics of federalism in modern U.S. politics.
Pears, Emily and Emily Sydnor. “COVID-19 and the Culture of American Federalism,” RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, vol. 8, no. 8, 2022, pp. 181-220.
Abstract: COVID-19 highlighted America’s federalist structure as the dissemination of pandemic information was frequently left to states and localities. For some citizens, this was a welcome relief from national-level policymaking and political narratives, though others argued that the federal government was failing to live up to its obligations. We identify three reasons for variation in Americans’ trust in information from different levels of government: partisanship, ideology, and state identity. Using data from a representative online survey of more than one thousand people, we demonstrate that each individual characteristic shaped respondents’ trust in leaders to provide pandemic information. Partisanship and ideology played major roles in information trust at both the national and state level, but individuals’ psychological attachment to their state and to the nation also shaped their trust in the federated information environment.
Pears, Emily. “Demagoguery in America,” National Affairs, vol. 53, 2022, pp. 116-132.
Pei, Minxin. “Biden is Fighting the Wrong Battle Against China.” Bloomberg, July 14, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “Blowing Down the CPC’s House of Cards.” Project Syndicate, October 10, 2022.
Abstract: Deng Xiaoping understood that a rules-based system was essential to avoid a repeat of the fanatical terror unleashed under Mao Zedong. But his conviction could not overcome his self-interest, and, as President Xi Jinping has shown, the institutional edifice Deng built in the 1980s turned out to be hollow.
Pei, Minxin. “Can the US Win the New Cold War?” Project Syndicate, July 14, 2022.
Abstract: US President Joe Biden's administration has proved its ability to rally America’s democratic allies abroad to stand up to their autocratic adversaries. But if the US is to win the new cold war, it will also need to protect its own democracy from the Republican Party.
Pei, Minxin. “China and Russia are More Inseparable Than Ever.” Bloomberg, June 19, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “China Can’t Afford to Decouple from the West.” Bloomberg, January 30, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “China Could End the War in Ukraine. It Won’t.” Bloomberg, March 21, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “China has a Limited Window to Salvage Ties with Europe.” Nikkei Asia, May 27, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “China’s Communist Party Congress is Not Just About Xi Jinping.” Nikkei Asia, October 10, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “China’s Communist Party Needs to Face its Talent Challenge.” Nikkei Asia, August 25, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “China’s Debt bomb Looks Ready to Explode.” Nikkei Asia, July 17, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “China’s Gorbachev Phobia.” Project Syndicate, September 1, 2022.
Abstract: In the eyes of most leaders of the Communist Party of China, Mikhail Gorbachev committed the unforgivable crime of causing the collapse of the Soviet Union. Despite more than three decades of success at avoiding a similar fate, China’s rulers are still spooked by his legacy.
Pei, Minxin. “China’s Long Game Has Just Gotten a Lot Harder.” Nikkei Asia, March 8, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “China Should Remember Lessons of Nixon Visit.” Bloomberg, February 19, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “China Will Not Overpower U.S. If It Keeps Losing Efficiency.” Nikkei Asia, November 2, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “China Will Be Globalization’s Big Loser.” Project Syndicate, April 14, 2022.
Abstract: Seven decades ago, Mao Zedong embraced economic self-reliance and foreign-policy militancy, which turned China into an impoverished pariah state. This history should be a stark warning to President Xi Jinping: if he allows Russia to divide the world with its war on Ukraine, it is China that will pay the heaviest price.
Abstract: China's renewed saber-rattling over Taiwan, galvanized by US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island, is born of a need to maintain some control over the situation in the Taiwan Strait following steady electoral victories by Taiwan's pro-independence party. But while Chinese military action is unlikely at this juncture, an accidental clash is all too plausible.
Pei, Minxin. “Gorbachev Did Save One Communist Party—China’s.” Bloomberg, September 4, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “How China Views the Ukraine Crisis.” Project Syndicate, January 28, 2022.
Abstract: While China obviously stands to benefit if a Russian invasion of Ukraine forces the United States to divert strategic resources to Eastern Europe, a peaceful resolution of the crisis will likely leave it worse off. Assuming that Chinese President Xi Jinping does not know the Kremlin’s real intentions, he is wise to hedge his bets.
Pei, Minxin. “How the US Can Counter China’s Middle-East Influence.” Project Syndicate, June 17, 2022.
Abstract: China is likely to continue relying on diplomatic and economic tools, rather than security cooperation, to expand its influence in the Middle East. The only way US President Joe Biden can counter these efforts is by raising America’s own diplomatic and economic game.
Pei, Minxin. “Nixon Was Right to Gamble on China.” Project Syndicate, February 17, 2022.
Abstract: Revisionist critics argue that the US president’s 1972 visit to China, far from being a diplomatic masterstroke, was a huge strategic blunder. But a policy of engagement that helped produce 40 years of peace, prosperity, and stability between two former staunch foes must be considered a resounding success.
Pei, Minxin. “Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip is Only the Start of US Headaches.” Bloomberg, August 2, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip Should Not Be A Cause for War.” Nikkei Asia, July 30, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “Policy Continuity with Rhetorical Escalation: Parsing Xi Jinping’s Political Report to the 20th Party Congress.” China Leadership Monitor, December 1, 2022.
Abstract: The political report Chinese leader Xi Jinping delivered to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China represents a notable departure from his report to the 2017 19th Party Congress in its tone and depiction of China’s external environment. But in terms of policy, his report presents a policy agenda that summarizes existing policy. The focus on national security in the report largely formalizes recent policy initiatives rather than signaling a radical shift. When we compare the last three political reports, Hu Jintao’s report to the 18th Congress and Xi’s reports to the 19th and 20th congresses, Xi’s report to the 19th Congress was a radical departure from Hu’s report to the 18th Congress in both tone and substance, whereas his report to the 20th Congress took on a more combative tone than his report to the 19th Congress but it contained a similar policy agenda. This can be seen in the sections on national defense and Taiwan in the two reports. Taken together, Xi’s report to the 20th Party Congress signals a continuation of Xi’s current policy agenda in his third term.
Pei, Minxin. “The Security Consequences of America’s China Focus.” Project Syndicate, January 3, 2022.
Abstract: With the United States’ security strategy now dominated by the China threat, some regional powers will be tempted to engage in aggression against weaker neighbors in order to test US resolve. But the diminution of America’s global stature could also bring significant benefits for both the US and the rest of the world.
Pei, Minxin. “The Steps Xi Must Take to Revive China’s Economy.” Nikkei Asia, January 19, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “A Tale of Three Resolutions: A Close Reading of Xi Jinping’s Version of CCP History.” China Leadership Monitor, March 1, 2022.
Abstract: The 6th plenum of the CCP Central Committee in November 2021 passed a landmark resolution on the party’s one hundred years of history. While the document briefly reviews the party’s 91 years of existence before the rise of Xi Jinping, it devotes more than half of its space to an affirmation of Xi’s policies during the last nine years. The timing of the resolution, its effusive praise of Xi’s record, and its elevation of Xi’s stature are intended to strengthen his case for extending his term in office. The resolution is thus more a work of political advocacy than of historical revisionism. The language of the resolution also provides important clues about Xi’s ideological beliefs and conception of his stature in the party. The sections in the resolution on foreign policy vigorously endorse Xi’s approach, and their defiant tone suggests a continuation of Xi’s current policy. However, the same evidence of Xi’s political dominance can also be interpreted as reflective of concerns within the party about the direction of the party under his leadership.
Pei, Minxin. “A Three Pillar Strategy to Prevent War in East Asia.” Nikkei Asia, April 4, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “Ukraine Crisis a Gift for China That Keeps on Giving.” Nikkei Asia, February 15, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “The Ukraine War Could Trigger a Nuclear-Arms Race in Asia.” Project Syndicate, March 22, 2022.
Abstract: By bolstering the case for more nuclear weapons in Asia, Russia’s war in Ukraine could decimate what little is left of the region's strategic stability. This not only poses an existential threat to Asia; it would also deliver yet another blow to the global non-proliferation regime.
Pei, Minxin. “What Happens When Chinese Leaders Cling to Power? It Isn’t Pretty.” Bloomberg, October 13, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “Will China Prove the Doomsayers Wrong?” Project Syndicate, November 8, 2022.
Abstract: Investors seem convinced that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s new leadership lacks the knowhow and independence to mount an effective response to the profound economic challenges the country faces. Whether they are proved right or wrong depends – like virtually everything else in China nowadays – on the man at the top.
Pei, Minxin. “What the Ukraine war Should Teach China.” Project Syndicate, June 8, 2022.
Abstract: Russia’s military has performed far worse than expected in Ukraine. This does not bode well for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, which shares many of the same weaknesses, some of which – such as politicization and lack of combat experience – are even more pronounced.
Pei, Minxin. “Xi Jinping and the Paradox of Power.” Foreign Affairs, Nov. 20, 2022.
Abstract: China's strongman Xi Jinping may have obtained unassailable power, but he faces daunting challenges in implementing his agenda and preserving his legacy in the coming decade.
Pei, Minxin. “Xi Jinping’s Political Agenda and Leadership: What do we know from his decade in power.” China Leadership Monitor, September 1, 2022.
Abstract: The political agenda of Chinese President Xi Jinping during his first decade in power consisted of three core components: establishing personal political dominance, revitalizing the Leninist party-state, and expanding Chinese power and influence globally. As he completes his first two terms and seeks a third term, he has made uneven progress in accomplishing his agenda. Due to his political skills and control of the regime’s instruments of coercion, Xi has firmly established his political authority and dominance. The revitalization of the Leninist party-state has been most successful in reinstituting tight social control. The reintroduction of ideological indoctrination and organizational discipline into the party may have produced a revival of political ritualism but questionable genuine ideological commitment and political loyalty. The reassertion of state control over the economy has just begun, and it is likely to entail immense costs. The assertive foreign policy has yielded mostly counterproductive outcomes as attempts to take advantage of the shift in the global balance of power has provoked a vigorous pushback by the U.S. and its allies.
Pei, Minxin. “Xi’s Inevitable Third Term Will Add a New Tier to the Communist Party’s House of Cards.” Globe and Mail, October 14, 2022.
Pei, Minxin. “Zero-COVID Strategy Puts China Between a Rock and a Hard Place.” Nikkei Asia, April 28, 2022.
External Grant: Pei, Minxin, “China Leadership Monitor.” Smith Richardson Foundation, 2022, $281,000.
Abstract: This grant enables me to edit and publish China Leadership Monitor, an online policy-oriented journal on China that has more than 8000 subscribers, for the period of September 1, 2022 to August 31, 2024.
Pitney, John J., Jr. “George W. Bush and Congress.” 43: Inside the George W. Bush Presidency, edited by Michael Nelson, Barbara A. Perry, and Russell L. Riley. University Press of Kansas, 2022, pp. 140-165.
Abstract: Bush's relationship with Congress changed as party control shifted: a 50/50 Senate in his early months; a divided Congress in 2001 and 2002, unified GOP control between 2003 and 2006, and Democratic control in 2007 and 2008.
Pitney, John J, Jr. Review of Ideas of Power, by Verlan Lewis. Party Politics, vol. 28, no. 1, 2022, pp. 198-199.
Shields, Jon. “How Donald Trump’s Brutish Code of Honor Explains His Feud with Liz Cheney.” New York Times, February 3 2022.
Shields, Jon. “I’m a Conservative Professor Who Opposed Safe Spaces. I was Wrong.” New York Times, 7 April 2022.
Shields, Jon and Stephanie Muravchik. “Liz Cheney and the Twilight of the Old Republican Elite.” New York Times, August 16 2022.
Shields, Jon. Review of Democracy Lives in Darkness by Emily Van Duyn. Perspectives on Politics, vol. 20, no. 4, 2022, pp. 1462-1463.
Shields, Jon and Stephanie Muravchik. “Liz Cheney and the Twilight of the Old Republican Elite.” New York Times, August 16 2022.
Sinclair, J. Andrew. “Rose Institute Q&A: California’s Top-Two Election System.” Rose Institute of State and Local Government, Claremont McKenna College, June 1, 2022.
Sinclair, J. Andrew and Kenneth P. Miller. “Battleground Pennsylvania: The 2022 Midterm Election.” Rose Institute of State and Local Government, Claremont McKenna College, November 2, 2022.
Sinclair, J. Andrew and Kenneth P. Miller. “Red vs. Blue States: Competing Visions for 2022 and 2024.” RRose Institute of State and Local Government, Claremont McKenna College, November 4, 2022.
Sinha, Aseema. “After Compliance in India and Beyond: A Theory of Implementation Dilemmas and Comparative Institutional Analysis.” Contemporary South Asia, vol. 30, issue 2, 2022, pp. 218-235.
Abstract: Using India as a theory building case, this paper puts forward a theoretical framework for understanding countries’ responses to global rules and implementation effects across diverse global governance regimes and contexts. The initial premise for this paper is that the strategic structure of implementation dilemmas faced by states and actors within countries need to be understood in addition to design dilemmas. Successful global regimes must not only solve cooperation and uncertainty problems at the initial stages in choosing the right institutional matrix, but also ‘require changes in domestic institutions.’ The need to change domestic institutions creates certain implementation dilemmas. These dilemmas are a joint product of the institutional design, specific policy issue and the domestic logic of responses after international agreements have been signed. This broader idea helps understand a wide variety of India’s interactions across global governance institutions. I also suggest a novel empirical strategy of cross-institutional analysis to assess implementation dilemmas. While we have numerous cross-national studies of how compliance occurs in a wide variety of countries, we lack theory-driven, empirically grounded, comparative studies of a single country or a group of countries across diverse global regimes. Such a framework can help us better understand how countries interact with a variety of global institutions and the reciprocal effects. This framework is then used to understand India’s interactions with diverse global regimes in an illustrative manner in this article, and in greater detail by other authors in the section published in this issue of Contemporary South Asia.
Sinha, Aseema. "Aseema Sinha on the Persecution of Muslims in India." Interviewed by Umer Lakhani*. Asia Experts Forum, October 19, 2022.
Sinha, Aseema. “Developing a “India in the World” Framework: Modi Regime’s Political Economy in a Changing World.” Journal of Indian and Asian Studies, vol. 3, no. 2, 2022, 2240003.
Abstract: India’s political economy and economic policy can no longer be understood in a purely domestic-oriented or closed economy framework. This paper offers a “India in the world” framework that analyzes how traditional borders of domestic political economy and international politics interact in shaping domestic policy and political economy. In contrast to existing political economy approaches on India, such a framework pays attention to the changing nature of domestic political economy but also how international factors affect and shape domestic imperatives and goals. Simultaneously, domestic developments have important global consequences in terms of increasing (or decreasing) global attention and external economic flows to India, which must be attended to in understanding India’s domestic political economy. I also suggest that the global world is not only a set of exogenous structures and constraints but rather, the changing global order is deployed and used by state actors to refurbish their political power, and renew state power to achieve both domestic and global aims. However, if state actors fail to renew the domestic sources of growth or contribute to crony capitalist or debt-laden domestic growth, then, even attending to global alliances may fail to renew the economic sources of state power and create serious contradictions in India’s domestic and global strategies despite new realignments favoring India at the global level. These ideas help us understand Modi’s regime’s political economy in a new way.
Sinha, Aseema. “India in a Changing Global World: Understanding India’s Changing Statecraft and Delhi’s International Relations.” The Roundtable: Commonwealth Journal of International Affairs, vol. 111, no. 3, 2022, pp. 398-411.
Abstract: Building upon a vast literature and Ministry of External Affairs Annual reports, this article argues that India’s foreign actions through its 75 years are not only domestically generated. Analysis of India’s foreign relations must include an assessment of changing global structures and how they affect domestic imperatives. A ‘inside-outside’ perspective, with a focus on India’s ideas and actions, must to be combined with an ‘outside-in’ analysis. Such an outside-in analysis places India’s statecraft in the context of global structures across four phases: 1947-1989; 1999-2000; 2000-2016, and 2016-2021, while also exploring the domestic foundations of changing foreign policy interests.
Sinha, Aseema. “India and the Global Governance Across International Regimes and Time.” Contemporary South Asia, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 210-217.
Abstract: India’s rising power and status within a variety of global institutions is well explained with the help of an inside-out approach, with a focus on India’s domestic compulsions and strategies. This special section of four articles in Contemporary South Asia deepens this inside-out analysis, combining it with an outside-in approach to global institutions which explore how the global regime in question shapes and interacts with domestic impulses and dilemmas. The four papers explore India’s approach and actions across a divergent set of global institutions such as the IMF, the WHO, and maritime governance in a regional context, showing how the institutional and geopolitical context matters to understanding India’s diverse actions and strategies. These articles also explore the evolving process of compliance and implementation within each specific global institutional context. Such a comparative approach allows us to understand how the specific institutional design of the relevant organization or the structure of the global regime affects India. In this introduction to the special section, I outline the advantages of an interactive, comparative approach, exploring India’s varying actions across a variety of issue areas and global contexts. Such a variegated and differential analysis across global regimes is valuable for a more complete and differentiated analysis of India’s rise.
Sinha, Aseema. "Interview - Aseema Sinha." Interview by E-International Relations. E-International Relations, May 25, 2022.
Sinha, Aseema. Review of Patching Development, by Rajesh Veeraraghavan. Perspectives on Politics, vol. 20, no. 4, 2022, pp. 1478 - 1480.
Appel, Hilary and Jennifer Taw. “Will Russia’s Anti-NATO Gambit Succeed?” Project Syndicate, January 27, 2022.
Abstract: Despite many years of expanding cooperation and engagement between Beijing and Moscow, China’s record on trade, foreign direct investment, weapons sales, and military exercises after the invasion of Ukraine suggests that China has not backed the Russian war effort in material terms. Although China has offered strong rhetorical support for Russia, it is trying, like many countries, to straddle both East and West without sacrificing core interests.
Thomas, George. “The Constitution at War with Itself: Lincoln, Slavery, and America’s Second Founding.” The Bulwark, March 25, 2022.
Thomas, George. “Mike Pence Owes the County an Explanation.” The Atlantic, August 22, 2022.
Thomas, George. “What the Constitution Doesn’t Say.” The Atlantic, February 3, 2022.
Uvin, Peter. “International Organization of Hunger.” Routledge, 2022.
Abstract: First Published in 1993, this is part of the Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva series. This study which looks at whether scholars of international politics attempt to understand cooperative behavior in the light of the theories developed by the observers of both conflict and of cooperation. This volume expands the short list of such works and does so with insight, a wide range of scholarship and a willingness to test particular cases against existing theory. The author has written a book which expands the knowledge of, but also a thoughtful improvement of existing theoretical approaches. Uvin's universe of enquiry excludes military power and its application. It concentrates on the long-term, complex organization of cooperative transnational behavior and its rationale. Its focusses on functional issues involving world hunger, a haunting background and result, and perhaps even one cause, of the dreadful violence that characterizes our world even as the threat of catastrophic nuclear warfare has declined.
Zarkin, Jessica and Flores-Macias, Gustavo. “Militirization and Perceptions of Law Enforcement in the Developing World: Evidence from a Conjoint Experiment in Mexico.” British Journal of Political Science, vol. 52, no. 3, 2022, pp. 1377-1397.
Abstract: Although a growing body of research suggests that the constabularization of the military for domestic policing is counterproductive, this increasingly prevalent policy has nonetheless enjoyed widespread sup- port in the developing world. This study advances our understanding of the consequences of militariza- tion for perceptions of law enforcement: whether visual features shape perceptions of effectiveness, respect for civil liberties, proclivity for corruption and acceptance of militarization in one’s own neighborhood. Based on a nationally representative, image-based, conjoint experiment conducted in Mexico, the authors find that military weapons and uniforms enhance perceptions of effectiveness and respect for civil liber- ties, and that the effect of military uniform becomes greater with increased military presence. The study also finds that gender shapes perceptions of civil liberties and corruption, but detects no effect for skin color. The findings suggest that a central feature of militarization linked to greater violence – military weapons – is paradoxically a key factor explaining favorable attitudes, and that women can play a crucial role in improving perceptions of law enforcement.