Claremont McKenna College Poll: Election Battles in Largest States May Have National Implications

A Claremont McKenna College-Rose Institute poll published today finds that governor races in the nation’s four largest states - California, Texas, Florida, and New York - will shape the national political direction in the coming years. The poll surveyed 5,060 registered voters nationally, including oversamples of approximately 800 voters in each of the four states, between October 11-26, 2022.

“The governors–Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Kathy Hochul (D-NY), Greg Abbott (R-TX), and Ron DeSantis (R-FL)–have come to embody the states’ highly partisan models. Tuesday’s election provides voters in the four states an opportunity to judge not only their governors, but also the blue or red agendas they represent,” said Ken Miller, Director of the Rose Institute of State and Local Government at Claremont McKenna College.

“The four ‘mega-states’ have established rival and increasingly polarized visions of state government–one blue, the other red. California and New York have become national catalysts for progressive policies, while Texas and Florida have become the most powerful advocates of conservative alternatives,” said Miller.

Additionally, the state elections may give momentum to at least two of these governors–Newsom and DeSantis–to sell their states’ competing visions to the nation by running for president in 2024, according to the Rose Institute poll.

Highlights from the poll include:

• The governors of all four states have positioned themselves to win reelection in 2022 by retaining the support of members of their state’s dominant party, rendering opposition by people outside that party largely irrelevant.
• The four governors are on track to win reelection even though a large share of their constituents is dissatisfied with recent economic and social trends.
• For the 2024 presidential race, 33% of Republican voters support DeSantis and 7% of Democratic voters support Governor Gavin Newsom.
• In a head-to-head match-up, DeSantis edges out Newsom, 51-49%, and former President Donald Trump leads DeSantis, 55-45%.
• Many residents of Florida, California, New York, and Texas are considering moving elsewhere, with many disagreeing with their state’s dominant political orientation. Respondents report they are interested in moving to a location where neighbors have political and policy preferences closer to their own.

The entire polling data is available in the full report, which looks at Florida, California, New York, and Texas, their governors, and these states’ highly partisan policy models.

Co-authors of the poll at Claremont McKenna’s Rose Institute of State and Local Government:

Andrew Sinclair, Ph.D.: asinclair@cmc.edu (cell: 626-376-1105)

Kenneth P. Miller, J.D., Ph.D.: kmiller@cmc.edu