Manfred Keil, associate professor of economics and chair of the faculty at The Robert Day School of Economics and Finance at CMC, gets a nod in this week's BusinessWeek online, in an article posted by journalist Peter Coy on Tuesday, May 19.
Titled, "The Apocalypse Might Have to Be Postponed," Coy points to an op-ed by Keil and James Symons, an emeritus reader in economics at University College London, that indicates the recession isn't as bad as many fear.
"They've developed a simple economic model that does a surprisingly good job of predicting U.S. growth," Coy writes, "and it's predicting a decline of just 0.5% in gross domestic product in 2009." That's much better, he continues, than recent forecasts for 2009 by the Congressional Budget Office (down 2.2%), Blue Chip Economic Indicators (down 1.1%), the Federal Reserve for its stress test (down 2%), or the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (down 4%).
Coy's full post can be viewed here, as well as the link to the full study by Keil and Symons: http://www.businessweek.com/managing/economic_recovery/blog/archives/2009/05/the_apocalypse.html.