National Political Poll From Claremont McKenna College Highlights Narrow Margin Between Presidential Candidates and High Stakes of Election

CLAREMONT—A Claremont McKenna College-Rose Institute of State and Local Government poll published today finds a question on which many Americans can agree: 90% of registered voters are concerned that electing at least one of the two major party candidates poses a threat to democracy. Americans disagree, however, about which candidate poses the threat: 47% answered former President Donald Trump; 38% answered Vice President Kamala Harris; and 5% thought both of them. Only 10% of the respondents replied that neither candidate posed a threat to democracy.  

Additionally, among registered voters, results nationally showed Vice President Harris holds a narrow lead over former President Trump of 49% to 44%, with 7% either remaining undecided or preferring third-party candidates. When undecided or third-party voters are offered the opportunity to indicate that they lean toward one major candidate or the other, Harris retains a slight advantage, 50%-46%. Harris is also ahead with likely voters, 51%-46%.  

The presidential preference results are broadly consistent with the outcome of the 2020 election, in which President Biden won 51% of the popular vote and former President Trump won 47%.

The poll, which was designed by the Rose Institute and implemented by YouGov surveyed 6,500 registered voters in total. This includes 1,500 voters in a national sample as well as 1,000-voter oversamples in each of California, New York, Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The poll was conducted between October 7-17, 2024 and the national registered voter sample has a margin of error of 2.14%.  

“We will find out soon enough who actually wins the 2024 election,” said Andrew Sinclair, Director of the CMC-Rose Institute Poll and Assistant Professor of Government, Claremont McKenna College. “The value of polling is connecting the outcome we will know something about, the election results, to the attitudes that are hard to measure otherwise—how voters are thinking about politics. Voters believe the stakes are very high, with the country divided not only over issues but also expectations, what voters think will happen if one candidate or the other is elected.”  

Highlights from the poll include:                

• Nationally, 47% of respondents agree that Vice President Kamala Harris is a person of good moral character and personal integrity, however only 33% hold that view of President Donald Trump.
• In Pennsylvania, a very small percentage (approximately 1%) of Democrats are “not at all confident” that their ballot will be counted fairly, and few express any level of concern. In sharp contrast, a majority of Republicans (57%) lack confidence that their ballots will be counted fairly and accurately, including 20% that are “not at all” confident.

More extensive results are available in a national report and state-level reports, which include Pennsylvania, Florida, California, New York, and Texas. Follow the link here to access those reports: https://roseinstitute.org/2024-poll/.

Co-authors of the poll at Claremont McKenna’s Rose Institute of State and Local Government:

• Andrew Sinclair, Ph.D.: asinclair@cmc.edu (cell: 626-376-1105)
• Kenneth P. Miller, J.D., Ph.D.: kmiller@cmc.edu

Betsy Sinclair, Ph.D., Professor of Political Science at Washington University in St. Louis, partially funded and collaborated on the project as well: bsinclai@wustl.edu.  

About Claremont McKenna College:
Claremont McKenna College is a private, 1,300-student residential liberal arts college located east of Los Angeles in Southern California. Since 1946, the College’s mission has been to prepare students for thoughtful and productive lives and responsible leadership in business, government, and the professions. Renowned for its Open Academy commitments to freedom of expression, viewpoint diversity, and constructive dialogue, as well as expertise in economics and government, Claremont McKenna also features an accomplished faculty of scholars and committed teachers in the humanities, sciences, and social sciences. Students are drawn to the College’s unparalleled offerings, including: 11 research institutes and centers; the ability to conduct research one-on-one with faculty; and access to leaders, artists, and visionaries who engage with students at the Marian Miner Cook Athenaeum. Claremont McKenna is a member of The Claremont Colleges. For more information, visit https://www.cmc.edu/.